Harris leads Trump in three key states after a year of Biden’s polls struggle
By Lisa Lerer and Ruth Igielnik
Vice President Kamala Harris leads former president Donald Trump in three crucial battleground states, according to new surveys by The New York Times and Siena College, the latest indication of a dramatic reversal in standing for Democrats after President Joe Biden’s departure from the presidential race remade it.
Harris is ahead of Trump by 4 percentage points in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, 50 per cent to 46 per cent among likely voters in each state. The surveys were conducted from August 5 to 9.
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.Credit: AP
The polls, some of the first high-quality surveys in those states since Biden announced he would no longer run for re-election, come after nearly a year of surveys that showed either a tied contest or a slight lead for Trump over Biden.
While the reshaped race is still in its volatile early weeks, Democrats are now in a notably stronger position in these three battleground states. Still, the results show vulnerabilities for Harris: voters prefer Trump when it comes to whom they trust to handle the economy and immigration, issues that remain central to the presidential race.
Harris’ numbers are an upswing for Democrats from Biden’s performance in those states, even before his much-maligned debate performance that destabilised his candidacy.
In May, Biden was virtually tied with Trump in Times/Siena polling in Wisconsin and Michigan. Polling conducted before and after the debate in July showed Trump with a narrow lead in Pennsylvania.
Much of the newfound Democratic strength stems from improved voter perceptions of Harris. Her favourability rating has increased 10 percentage points among registered voters in Pennsylvania just in the past month, according to Times/Siena polling. Voters also view Harris as more intelligent and more temperamentally fit to govern than Trump.
The polls offer an early snapshot of a race that was transformed in little more than two weeks. The whirlwind of political change seized the nation’s attention and reinvigorated some voters who were approaching the rematch between Biden and Trump with a deep sense of dread.
It is unclear how much of Harris’ bounce in the polls stems from the heightened excitement surrounding her ascension to the top of the ticket, or whether that momentum will last.
Candidates traditionally gain a few percentage points in the days after announcing their running mates; Harris announced her selection of Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota on Tuesday, as voters were responding to the Times/Siena surveys in Michigan and Wisconsin.
In the three battlegrounds, Harris is in a stronger position than Biden was in May with most demographic groups.
But the polls also indicate clear vulnerabilities for the new Democratic nominee, finding that 42 per cent of voters said Harris was too liberal; 37 per cent said the same about Biden last October.
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
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