Can Australia finally beat the USA’s swimming medal tally? It comes down to the last day
By Tom Decent
After eight nights of enthralling Olympic swimming action, Australia is just hanging on in its bid to achieve the holy grail: beating the USA on an Olympic swimming medal table.
Not since the Melbourne Games of 1956 has Australia downed the USA in the pool at an Olympics (eight golds to two).
However, there is still a lot of work to do, and it will hinge on the performances of the Americans on the final day of competition on Sunday.
As it stands in Paris, Australia have won seven gold medals to the USA’s six, with four finals still to play out on Sunday (Monday morning AEST).
Ariarne Titmus (400m freestyle), Mollie O’Callaghan (200m freestyle), Kaylee McKeown (100m and 200m backstroke), Cam McEvoy (50m freestyle) and the women’s 4x100m freestyle and 4x200m freestyle relay teams have all been victorious.
For the USA, Torri Huske (100m butterfly), Katie Ledecky (800m and 1500m freestyle), Kate Douglass (200m breaststroke) and the men’s 4x100m freestyle and mixed 4x100m medley relay teams have been the shining lights over eight days of racing.
It has been a disappointing campaign for the Americans in terms of gold medals won, however, they have more overall medals (25 to Australia’s 16) thanks to their superior depth.
Nonetheless, America’s Olympic broadcaster, NBC, and The New York Times are putting the USA at the top of the medal table due to the total number of medals won. The International Olympic Committee website shows Australia leading the swimming medal table.
NBC’s main swimming broadcaster, Rowdy Gaines, was asked on social media platform X this week whether gold medals or overall medals should be used to determine the superior country.
“Depends on whose system you use,” Gaines wrote.
Gaines was also asked if this was the toughest US Olympic swimming campaign ever.
“It was tough no doubt,” he wrote.
The USA look like they’ll take home their worst haul of gold medals in the pool since 1988. That’s largely because French superstar Leon Marchand and Canada’s Summer McIntosh keep pinching golds away from the Americans in individual medley and butterfly events.
Australia’s hopes of beating our record of nine swimming gold medals at the Tokyo Olympics three years ago is all but dashed. It has, however, been a pleasing campaign.
Here are the races to come and predictions on how they might play out.
Women’s 50m freestyle
Prediction: Sarah Sjoestroem (Sweden)
Head-to-head: Australia up 7-6
Sjoestroem’s shock win in the 100m freestyle showed she would be in fine form for the one-lap dash. That was solidified when she clocked an Olympic record time of 23.66 in the semi-finals on Saturday. It would take the biggest upset of the week for Sjoestroem not to come away with a gold medal. Australians Shayna Jack and Meg Harris would need to break 24 seconds – the former has done it only once – to have any chance of getting Australia’s eighth gold. The USA’s Gretchen Walsh is the second-fastest qualifier into Sunday’s final, in 24.17.
Men’s 1500m freestyle
Prediction: Daniel Wiffen (Ireland)
Head-to-head: Australia up 7-6
A few months ago, Australian Sam Short was looking good for a medal. On Saturday, in remarkable circumstances, he bombed out in the heats of the longest race on the Olympic program. Short’s time of 14:58.15 – putting him 13th overall – was more than 20 seconds slower than what he posted during his bronze-medal performance last year at the world championships. With no Australians in the race, the danger is American Bobby Finke, who could feasibly break a world record if things go to plan. Australians should be cheering for Ireland’s Daniel Wiffen, who won the 800m freestyle and is looking smooth and controlled through the water. Wiffen was five seconds faster than Finke in the heats.
Men’s 4x100m medley
Prediction: USA
Head-to-head: Locked up 7-7
Australia’s lack of depth in men’s backstroke, breaststroke and, arguably, butterfly means a gold medal just isn’t going to happen in this race. The USA have never lost this event at the Olympics and should win, but China have some stars in their ranks, notably breaststroker Qin Haiyang and world record holder in the 100m freestyle, Pan Zhanle. American butterfly leg Caeleb Dressel and freestyler Jack Alexy have been below their best this week. Who would’ve thought Australia would be cheering for China?
Women’s 4x100m medley
Prediction: USA
Head-to-head: USA win eight golds to seven
Australia won this event in Tokyo but face a big task to down the USA, who should have Regan Smith, Lilly King, Gretchen Walsh and either Kate Douglass or Torri Huske in their team. Australia will probably go with Kaylee McKeown, Jenna Strauch, Emma McKeon and Mollie O’Callaghan. China are not out of the mix, either.
O’Callaghan believes Australia can still finish ahead of the USA on the medal table, like they did at the world championships in Fukuoka by winning 13 golds to seven. Some of those gold medals were in events that do not feature on the Olympic program, like McKeown’s victory in the 50m backstroke.
“Absolutely. I will always back the Dolphins,” O’Callaghan said. “No matter what, we’ll be very proud … It’s a smaller country and team. To have this much success in a short amount of time, and have everyone swim their heart out, means everything.”
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