In the NRL world, this is the time of year when everyone’s a bit on edge, where the promised land and the finals are somewhere on the horizon but still a little too far away to get excited.
The weather’s grim, representative players are teetering after escaping the State of Origin labyrinth, fans are starting to lose hope or harbour unrealistic expectations of their team, clubs schedule otherwise middling games in peculiar places such as Perth and Bundaberg to maintain interest and player managers crank up the pressure for their next star’s deal. Heck, it even seems a good time for the game’s bosses to get out of town for, say, an Olympic Games.
But it’s also the time of year which makes or breaks a season. Lose your way shortly after the Origin series (hello, Broncos), and you lose any chance of winning a title or making the top eight.
Timing your run is an art form. After all, it’s better to come with a charge and sneak into the finals than to miss them altogether after being known as the May premiers.
So, which team is actually the best at finishing the regular season with a flurry after being spat out of the Origin period?
You would expect those with traditionally heavy Origin representation to struggle with the weekly NRL churn in the final two months of the regular season. Not so.
The Sydney Roosters are the kings of the finals run-in over the last decade.Credit: Getty Images
An analysis by Champion Data of the results of matches after the third Origin game in the last 10 years (excluding 2020 as the series was played after the grand final) has found the Roosters to be the most successful team in the run-in to the finals – by a long way.
Trent Robinson’s teams have been known as slow starters to a season throughout his tenure. But despite boasting a veritable army of players to have pulled on the NSW or Queensland jumper over the past decade – they had an NRL best six play in this year’s series, too – his sides have generally finished the regular season with a rush, rather than a whimper.
So much so, that their 78.7 per cent winning percentage from 2014-23 after Origin III far outstrips that of their nearest rivals, Craig Bellamy’s Storm (72.4 per cent).
It’s no fluke the Roosters and Storm, arguably the two most dominant teams of the NRL era, are so good at making their runs at the right time.
Robinson not only carefully crafts a schedule for his players, but looks after himself and his staff, too. He went hiking and did not watch this year’s Origin series opener live, so wasn’t aware Joseph Suaalii had been sent off for his tackle on Reece Walsh until hours after the game.
The Panthers – who have made the last four grand finals and had five players pull on sky blue even without Nathan Cleary this year – have the third-best record post-Origin at 63.2 per cent.
“You look at a world title fight, the hype, the build-up, the adrenalin, everything … and when they finish that fight they go on holidays for two months,” says Hayden Knowles, helping Robinson at the Roosters this year and former head of high performance with NSW and Penrith.
“These guys go back to work the next day. The mental drain is so hard. I can tell you personally, Robbo does it really well handling it with his players, and so does Ivan Cleary [at Penrith].”
NSW captain Jake Trbojevic and Queensland skipper Daly Cherry-Evans outside Melbourne’s Flinders Street Station.Credit: Getty Images
The data also shows that just because you might not have a lot of Origin stars, doesn’t mean you’re guaranteed to win more games than usual.
Among the worst performing teams after Origin across the last decade are ones devoid of NSW or Queensland regulars. Think the Titans (28 per cent), Dragons (31.1 per cent) and, perhaps most surprisingly, the Warriors (33.3 per cent).
It’s a tricky balancing act, and the reason Manly coach Anthony Seibold hasn’t hesitated giving his Origin captains, Daly Cherry-Evans and Jake Trbojevic, six days off during the Sea Eagles’ bye this week.
“It’s not just the physical load Origin guys carry, it’s the mental load,” Seibold said. “We had both captains [this year] and there’s a huge mental load which comes with that. ”
Both the Blues and Maroons share training data with the clubs of players they choose to help the NRL teams adjust in the weeks after an Origin series.
“We’ve put time into it - as all coaches and heads of performance would,” Seibold says. “But what you don’t want either is them under-training. There’s a balance to it.”
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